World Drug Report projects 11% increase in global drug use by 2030

World Drug Report projects 11% increase in global drug use by 2030

Over the past decade, some drugs have become more potent, cheaper, and drug use related deaths have almost doubled.

Idea in brief

The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) recently released it’s 2021 World Drug Report and Synthetic Drugs in East and Southeast Asia Report.

Drug use is increasing with some drugs becoming more potent

There has been a 22% rise in people using drugs over the past decade. Only 10% of this is attributed to global population growth. By 2030, the number of people using drugs globally is expected to rise by 11%, based on population growth alone.

Cannabis has become more potent, however fewer young people view it as harmful. Notably, the Australia and New Zealand subregion has the second highest prevalence of cannabis use globally.

Diversification of supply chains has seen higher quality cocaine readily available in Europe at lower cost. Cocaine purity has increased by 40% since 2011. This is likely to result in more people using cocaine and those already using to use more, increasing potential harms.

In 2019, the Australia and New Zealand subregion had the highest recorded prevalence of ecstasy and cocaine use globally among the population aged 15 - 64. It also recorded the second highest prevalence of methamphetamine use.

Drug use appears to have become more harmful. Deaths related to drug use disorders have almost doubled over the past decade and significantly exceed increases in the number of drug users. Opioid use continues to account for the largest burden of disease attributed to drugs.

Manufacturing and trafficking dynamics are evolving

The Covid-19 pandemic caused shortlived disruptions to global drug markets. Globally, quantities of drug seized decreased in the second quarter of 2020, coinciding with initial lockdowns, but returned to the same or greater levels by the third quarter.

Some trafficking dynamics have shifted since the pandemic, including larger shipment sizes, increased use of private aircraft and waterway routes, and contactless methods to deliver drugs to end-consumers.

Methamphetamine markets continue to expand. Security gaps in areas where methamphetamine is manufactured – such as Myanmar and parts of Mexico – are likely driving this expansion.

The pandemic-induced economic downturn is expected to increase the appeal of illicit cultivation of drugs among fragile communities, e.g., Afghanistan. In 2020, Afghanistan reported a 37% increase in land used for illicit cultivation of opium poppy compared with 2019.

As noted above, methamphetamine production in Afghanistan continues to be of concern, where the Ephedra plant, which is not subject to international control, is increasingly used as a precursor for ephedrine. Despite a threefold increase in seizures of methamphetamine over
the last decade, seizures of internationally controlled precursors have declined by 99% with those manufacturing drugs shifting to uncontrolled sources.

Web-based sales are on the rise

Drug trafficking on the darknet has seen relatively little change, however web activity is constantly evolving. It is anticipated the growing use of online drug markets could significantly transform global drug use patterns.

Australia comprises 7% of the listed country-of-shipment for dark web drug transactions. According to Global Drug Survey data, from 2014 - 2021, the number of drug users in Oceania using the dark web to purchase drugs has increased from 6% to 17.5%.

Strategic Considerations

The convergence of developments over the past decade and throughout the Covid-19 pandemic could see an increase in the availability, use, and harms caused by drugs in Australia and New Zealand.

Traffickers were forced to evolve in response to global lockdowns, a challenge to which they responded quickly and effectively. With the gradual lifting of restrictions globally, there may be an increase in overall quantity of drugs trafficked as traffickers continue to use new methods, while having traditional routes and methods returned to them. This could potentially increase the workload for law enforcement when detecting and disrupting drug trafficking.

Expanding methamphetamine markets in parts of Asia threaten to contribute to increased availability in Australia and New Zealand, where methamphetamine use is already high. Economic downturns and increasing instability in countries like Myanmar and Afghanistan may continue to enable this expansion.

Increased availability of drugs could push prices down and see an increase in new users and quantities consumed by existing users. This will almost certainly trigger an increase in drug related harms. 

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