The Policing Futures workshop, led by ANZPAA’s James Paterson at the ANZPAA Police Conference 2025, brought together policing leaders, practitioners, and thinkers from around the world to explore what the next decade may hold.
The discussions revealed a rapidly shifting operating environment - one shaped by climate disruption, fragmented trust and accelerating technological power. Together, these futures highlight both significant risks and opportunities for policing as agencies work to maintain legitimacy, resilience and community safety.
Green Horizons: Policing in a Climate-Stressed World
In the Green Horizons scenario, policing sits at the crossroads of climate disruption, widening inequality, and expanding digital enforcement tools. As extreme weather events become more frequent and climate change reshapes daily life, police are increasingly required to operate as both
emergency responders and mediators of emerging social divides. Environmental pressures are already influencing community expectations and patterns of harm, with climate related vulnerabilities concentrating in communities that often face existing socioeconomic disadvantage.
This future also offers opportunities. Whole of government climate governance and advances in predictive analytics - such as heat risk forecasting and infrastructure vulnerability mapping - create avenues for proactive, data driven policing. Enhanced partnerships with councils, health services, and Indigenous and migrant communities will be critical to supporting adaptation efforts and strengthening legitimacy. At the same time, police will need to navigate sensitive debates around compliance, fairness, and state authority as climate regulations touch more aspects of everyday life.
Fraying Connections: Rebuilding Trust in a Fragmented Information Landscape
The Fraying Connections scenario imagines a world where trust in institutions has eroded dramatically, transforming the social contract between police and the community. As misinformation, conspiracy narratives, and deepfakes spread faster than official communication, police are increasingly required to respond to harms unfolding within parallel information ecosystems. In such an environment, every incident has the potential to escalate into a legitimacy crisis.
Yet this fragmentation also produces gateways. As trust shifts toward hyperlocal networks and identity based groups, police can strengthen relationships where legitimacy remains - partnering with community leaders, local anchors, and mutual aid networks. The revival of offline, place based community life further enables police to reconnect with people in ways digital platforms cannot. Workshop participants noted that these conditions revive the relevance of foundational Peelian principles: policing by consent, presence, dialogue, and shared responsibility.
Technocracy: Navigating Power Shifts in a Technology Driven World
The Technocracy scenario highlights a world where technological power outpaces state power. As governments increasingly rely on private sector platforms - and as companies own critical infrastructure such as networks, satellites, and data - policing becomes dependent on systems it does not control. Cloud outages, restricted access, and opaque decision making present real operational and accountability risks.
However, policing also stands to benefit. AI enabled analytics, smart infrastructure, and advanced cybersecurity tools can greatly improve operational effectiveness. Crucially, policing has an opportunity to lead public conversations about how technology is used, emphasising transparency, safeguards, and alignment with community values. By shaping the narrative early, agencies can counter fears of “algorithmic policing” and reinforce that technology is a tool for service, not surveillance.
ANZPAA will be shortly releasing a Megatrends report grounded in strategic foresight that examines the major social, technological, economic, and environmental trends shaping policing in the short, medium, and long term. The report identifies emerging risks and opportunities to support informed, long-term planning and decision-making. Australian and New Zealand police can subscribe to updates to stay informed.
This editorial draws directly from the ANZPAA Policing Futures Workshop held at the ANZPAA Police Conference 2025.
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