Climate Change impacts and Regional Security

Climate Change impacts and Regional Security

In the coming decades climate change is likely to have an increasing impact on regional security in the Indo-Pacific region, posing challenges for police. 

Key Points

• The Indo-Pacific region is vulnerable to a range of security impacts from climate change including increased political instability, growing influence of non-state actors and population displacement.
• Police will need to respond to organised crime groups exploiting regional vulnerabilities to increase existing illicit activities and enter new markets.
• Regional instability could lead to Australia and New Zealand police undertaking more regional deployments, along with responding to extremist groups harming social cohesion in local jurisdictions.

In the coming decades climate change is likely to have an increasing impact on regional security in the Indo-Pacific region, posing challenges for police. 

A recent Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) report described a 2035 climate scenario where the climate has warmed above 1.5˚C resulting in a range of impacts in the Indo-Pacific region. Impacts could include disrupted trade, instability in less developed countries, greater influence from non-state actors such as terrorists and organised crime groups, increased competition between Indo-Pacific states and population displacement from natural disasters. 

The ASPI report also assumes that by 2035 the global energy system has been transformed by the rapid uptake of renewable energy. This global energy transformation will have geopolitical consequences as different countries compete to develop and access new technologies.

Policing Implications

Australia and New Zealand police will likely encounter a mix of direct and in-direct challenges caused by climate change in the Indo-Pacific region. 

Organised crime

Climate-induced regional instability may lead to growth in transnational organised crime. Organised crime groups could exploit weak states to increase illicit activities such as drug production and human trafficking. Given local law enforcement agencies in these areas are likely to have significantly reduced capacity to respond to organised crime, Australia and New Zealand police may need to play a more proactive role in disrupting organised crime activity in the region, as well as responding to potential increased flows of illicit drugs and trafficking in local jurisdictions.

Increased investment in the professionalisation of regional policing partners may also be needed to counter institutional decline.

Compromised supply chains may provide new opportunities for organised crime groups to profit by diverting supplies or counterfeiting products, such as pharmaceuticals, to take advantage of supply shortages. The creation of new unregulated markets will require police to partner with regulators to analyse emerging regulatory vulnerabilities that could be exploited by organised crime groups.

Regional deployments

Increased regional instability in the Indo-Pacific caused by compounding geopolitical and climate factors could require larger-scale and longer-term deployments of Australia and New Zealand police. Police deployments in response to regional instability could include contributing to disaster relief efforts and peacekeeping operations, as occurred recently in response to political unrest in the Solomon Islands. Such deployments may require closer cooperation with the Australian and New Zealand Defence Forces.

Social cohesion

The Indo-Pacific region has a long history of religious and ethnic violence, which may increase as a result of climate change as resource scarcity and economic disruption exacerbate existing conflicts. These conflicts could see extremist groups using environmental disasters and economic disparities to mobilise support for their causes.

Although these non-state actors are more likely to gain influence at a local or sub-regional level, the increased flow of migrants in the region fleeing environmental disasters and conflicts could also result in religious and ethnic tensions harming social cohesion within Australia and New Zealand. Community policing may increasingly involve understanding and responding to sectarian tensions that originated in other parts of the region.

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